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THE MODELS
NCAAF Model
I began formulating my first college football model in 2016 as a hobby and a way to mitigate the impact that emotions were having on my betting decisions. Each year since 2016 i have improved the model and during the 2020-21 season I decided to start this website. In the four years since i started the website i have been successful posting a 61% win percentage last year and a greater than 50% win percentage every year. Very few professional handicappers consistently achieve a 60% win percentage, especially when making a large number of picks (my model generates approximately 8-10 picks per week). I have always believed that my algorithm was capable of consistently predicting correctly at or beyond the 60% level.
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Every year I am able to add the statistics of approximately 750-900 games to my historical database. I use this additional data to improve my algorithms, which are based on approximately 40 statistical categories. This year i will be utilizing six (6) separate models internally to determine my weekly picks. When two (2) or more of the models agree on a play, those plays will be considered 2 STAR picks. When only one (1) of the models identify a pick, it will be considered a 1 STAR pick. Lastly, this year i have created a BONUS pick category. These are picks where none of my models met their minimum threshold, but a majority of my models liked a particular side below the minimum threshold. I only provide this new category for picks for situations when you want to put a bet on a game and just want to know how my model sees it going. The projected win percent on the BONUS category is only 53% and therefore would generate only break-even results.
I will begin posting picks for the 2024-25 season on September 5, 2024 and then weekly thereafter.
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NFL Model
I have yet to craft a successful and consistent NFL model. Each year i make improvements, but until i reach consistent winning results, i suggest you not rely solely on my picks.
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Posting Schedule
We intend to post our picks each week during the college football season by approximately 6pm Eastern time Thursday. The lines used for all picks are based upon publicly available lines at the time of posting. I will determine results and win/loss records based upon the lines shown on the weekly Thursday posts and plan to post results weekly by 6pm Eastern time on the following Tuesday.
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Betting
We suggest placing all of your college football bets for the weekend as soon as they are posted by us on Thursday. Betting prior to game day will prevent significant line movements and will reduce emotion in bet sizing. Managing your bankroll is as important to sustainable and profitable wagering as picking winners.
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We STRONGLY suggest you bet on all of our picks rather than cherry picking. The entire framework and concept of our models is that any single game is largely unpredictable, but over a large sample size the trends identified by our algorithm will repeat and provide the opportunity for predictable results and profitable wagering.
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Lastly, we suggest betting 1 unit (approximately 3% of your bankroll) for 1 STAR picks and 2 units (approximately 6% of your bankroll) for 2 STAR picks.
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